Europe as an investment destination

M&A activity globally is suppressed as a result of high interest rates, equity market volatility, a more febrile geopolitical environment and supply chain issues that are eroding profits and driving businesses to turn their focus inward. On the flip side, inflation is falling in Europe, and despite continued price pressure from rising wages, a weakening EU labour market provides a counterbalancing effect.

EU regulators play outsize role in global M&A

The European Commission remains among the toughest merger control enforcers in the world, even when considering the global trend towards greater regulatory intervention in big-ticket M&A deals. Authorities globally are increasingly aligned with politicians in their view that the merger control enforcement environment has been too lenient in recent years, resulting in industries being allowed to consolidate to the detriment of competition and consumers.

At the same time, the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA, which is carving a reputation as a fearsome and unpredictable authority post-Brexit), and the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and Department of Justice (DOJ), have been even more interventionist than their counterparts in Brussels in recent times. This dynamic prompted one of our interviewees to admit that “M&A in Europe feels a little easier to manage right now.”

Data and tech remained a priority for the current Commission, which has intervened in recent transactions over issues including interoperability and data access. As far as the latter is concerned, the EU has introduced the Digital Markets Act as another way to apply pressure on the global tech giants, alongside its use of pure competition law.

While the EU maintains it is open to foreign direct investment, three years on from the introduction of the EU FDI Screening Regulation, the proportion of foreign investments being formally reviewed continues to rise. Elsewhere, EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation – which is designed to protect the level playing field within the single market by introducing a notification regime for deals involving parties that have received distortive “foreign financial contributions” – adds a further layer of complexity to the deal approval process. This is particularly so for private capital firms, which now face the challenge of putting in place measures to track the relevant data at both fund and asset level.

Analysts have speculated that the forthcoming election could result in more Eurosceptic voices in Parliament on both the far left and far right, which could lead to calls for more freedom for member states to set their own economic, fiscal and regulatory policies. If these predictions prove correct, it could make the investment environment more fragmented in the years to come.

Public takeovers require understanding of Europe’s nuances

A deep understanding of Europe’s nuances is needed when considering public company takeovers. Europe’s listed businesses have proved attractive acquisition targets in recent years, with public takeover activity peaking in 2021. While deal values and volumes have fallen since, European equities have been trading below U.S. stocks for some years. Returns from the S&P 500 began to outstrip those of the MSCI Europe (which comprises large- and mid-cap businesses across 15 markets) in 2011 and are now 2.5 times higher.

We have seen some big-ticket public takeovers in Europe in recent years, but more often public-to-private deals involve mid- and smaller-cap companies who are out of the analysts’ spotlight and struggling to access liquidity with their shares trading at a discount. Here, a de-listing via a strategic combination or private equity buyout can be a lifeline. Strategic buyers currently have an advantage over financial investors because they can use their shares to fund acquisitions rather than having to seek bank syndicated loans. Other financing sources are available but can be expensive, leaving financial sponsors struggling to achieve the sorts of returns they have enjoyed in the past.

Against this backdrop, our survey painted a fascinating picture of real and perceived deal risks. Respondents whose businesses have completed an acquisition in the past two years listed cyber security due diligence as the biggest challenge they faced (73%), with managing the risk of leaks among the top five issues (67%). Our respondents whose businesses haven’t been active in M&A over the same period had leaks way down in 10th place.

The latter point is interesting in the context of public takeovers, given the importance of maintaining confidentiality under the EU Market Abuse Regulation (MAR). Understanding the differences between Europe’s myriad public M&A markets is critical to successful transactions.

Managing regulatory risk in deal execution

Our interviews also revealed how businesses are managing regulatory and other risks in the context of M&A transactions. Firstly, many of the business leaders we spoke to said smaller deals involving targets that fall below the revenue thresholds for some of Europe’s more stringent regulatory regimes are more challenging than bigger acquisitions.

A general counsel at a financial services firm said: “These companies may not be capturing all the climate data we require, or might not have wholly baked compliance programmes in place in other areas.” Any key regulatory compliance issues identified through the due diligence process become conditions precedent in deals, because “if we don’t articulate these things, we could be mispricing the deal”.

Trey White, vice president of corporate development at SAP agreed. “Anything we’re buying will need to meet our highest-common-denominator regulatory requirements. When we’re doing a deal with a big enough company, say USD1 billion or above, they’re already taking this stuff into consideration. Smaller companies however may have little to nothing in place. This means our teams have more work to do, which results in higher costs for the integration process and puts more strain on the business case going to the board. Over the last couple of years our due diligence request list has grown substantially and now covers questions relating to data privacy, compliance, export control, government relations, supply chains, human rights and more.”

Regulatory risk management through the deal process is particularly important for private equity buyers given their investment horizons. Regulatory investigations in Europe can take years to resolve, and if issues are not identified and addressed prior to completion they may result in enforcement action. This, in turn, could impact the sponsor’s exit options.