COP26: Draft Glasgow deal published
10 November 2021
Climate change mitigation – the path to net zero
The draft CMA decision acknowledges that emissions reduction contributions are still not on track. If all NDCs were implemented, emissions would still be 13.7% above 2010 levels by 2030, according to the update to the synthesis report published in preparation for the Glasgow summit.
The draft notes this “with serious concern” but there is very little by way of firm commitments to mitigation action. Instead, the decision makes a number of calls to the parties, including for:
- an accelerated phasing-out of coal and subsidies for fossil fuels.
- a world leaders’ summit in 2023 to consider the 2030 ambitions.
- an annual high-level ministerial round table on pre-2030 ambitions, the first of which is to be scheduled in November 2022.
- the establishment of a work programme to urgently scale up mitigation ambition and implementation for the rest of this decade.
- new or updated NDCs to be submitted ahead of COP27, with parties urged to revisit and strengthen their 2030 targets by the end of next year.
Climate change adaptation – coping with the changes already taking or expected to take place
Changes to the climate are already occurring across the world, with weather and climate extremes not seen in thousands of years, according to the report on the working group contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (the IPCC AR6). These are expected to increase with each additional increment of global warming.
As with mitigation, there are few concrete actions on climate change adaptation in the draft.
88 countries have submitted Adaptation Communications or National Adaptation Plans, which indicate how they intend to respond to these changes. The draft calls for the remaining countries – over half the parties to the Paris Agreement – to submit their communications before COP27 to allow the first global stocktake on adaptation.
The draft also calls on the private sector, multilateral development banks and other financial institutions to mobilise finance for adaptation, as well as inviting developed countries to consider multi-annual pledges to adaptation finance.
Finance, tech and capacity-building for transition and climate loss and damage
The draft calls for further financial support from all areas, with a particular call for developed countries to contribute significantly more than the USD 100 billion per year pledge.
“Enhanced and additional support” for actions addressing the loss and damage resulting from climate change is requested from developed countries, those operating the Financial Mechanism (a resource established under the Convention for Climate Change to provide financial resources to developing countries) and intergovernmental and multilateral organisations.
The draft also acknowledges that some countries may be facing difficulties accessing concessional climate finance, with a specific call for scaled-up financial resources to take into account developing countries’ needs.
Technical support is also exhorted, with an urgent call for scaling up technology transfer and capacity building to address loss and damage associated with climate change. Specifically, the Santiago Network for Loss and Damage, a coordination network aimed at providing technical support to vulnerable developing countries on the front line of climate change, is to be made fully operational.
Full implementation of the Paris Agreement?
The draft indicates that the parties have agreed to “move swiftly” on the full implementation and delivery of the Paris Agreement, although there is explicit mention of recognition of the concerns of countries most affected by response measures (effectively restating art.4, para 15 of the Paris Agreement) and the need for a just transition (i.e. one that recognises takes into account the social impact).
Countries are encouraged to swiftly prepare of reporting of climate change action and progress towards their NDCs under the enhanced transparency framework. The framework, which is set out under art.13 of the Paris Agreement, requires biennial reports on anthropogenic emissions sources and removals, as well as the information needed to track NDC progress.
What’s still to come?
Judging by the placeholders, we may still see more on:
- a new collective quantified goal on climate finance.
- a global goal on adaptation.
- more detail on finance and technical support.
- news on completion of the Paris Rulebook.
- support for the enhanced transparency reporting framework.
It should be remembered that even the non-bracketed text could change – either strengthened or weakened. Indications are that negotiations are intense.
We’ll keep you posted on the final deal.