Survey: Economic impact of war in Ukraine
The German economy is not only the fourth-largest economy worldwide, but in particular relies on functioning flows of goods due to its disproportionally high export share. How, and to what extent, are German companies impacted by the war between Russia and the Ukraine, both today and in future?
With our A&O trend barometer, we sought to answer these questions and have asked, in particular in the segment of major companies (annual revenue of more than EUR 500m), 100 executives of the first and second management levels for their evaluation of the situation. The survey primarily focused not only on key performance indicators such as revenue, costs, financing and investments, but also on fundamental questions regarding strategy and forecasts on the further development of the conflict and the EU's economic relationship with Russia.
The survey was conducted in April 2022. Of the 4,200 companies in Germany generating a revenue of more than EUR 500m, 100 companies participated in the survey, among them 50 companies of the manufacturing industry, 25 of the trade industry and 25 of the service industry. 37 percent of the companies interviewed maintain economic relations with Russia and/or Ukraine.
Results:
Major companies appear largely unfazed by the war between Russia and Ukraine
- Revenue expectations remain positive despite increased costs and interrupted delivery chains
- Investment activities are being continued; access to financing remains open
- Companies do not want to turn away from the "energy turnaround" (Energiewende)
- Majority expects the war to end no earlier than autumn or even 2023
- One third expects relations with Russia to normalise in ten years at the earliest
expect revenues to remain the same or increase in 2022
strongly affected by sanctions - 58% not at all
rely on renewables as the core of their future supply strategy
expect the armed conflict to end in 2023 at the earliest
expect revenues to remain the same or increase in 2022
strongly affected by sanctions - 58% not at all
rely on renewables as the core of their future supply strategy
expect the armed conflict to end in 2023 at the earliest
The fact that the mood is nevertheless predominantly positive may be an indication that many companies have learned to deal with crises in recent years.
Dr Wolf Bussian, Managing Partner Germany
Revenue expectations remain positive despite increased costs and interrupted delivery chains
It is not expected that the war will end quickly
38% of the executives expect that the conflict will continue for at least one year, only 20% expect that the conflict will end within the next three months.
Far greater time horizons are forecast for relations between the EU and Russia to recover: 34% expect the relationship to normalise no earlier than in ten years. 45% are more optimistic and expect a recovery in the next two to five years.
Only 3% are strongly affected by sanctions – 58% not at all
Access to financing remains open
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The (legally) secured reliability and resilience of production and supply chains will play a key role in the future.
Dr Astrid Krüger, Partner Corporate/M&A
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Further quotes and evaluations from our experts
Survey: Major German companies appear largely unfazed by Russian conflict
Your contacts
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Dr Wolf Bussian
Managing Partner Germany
Frankfurt am Main
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Dr Astrid Krüger
Partner
Munich
Frankfurt am MainView profile
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Dr Udo Herbert Olgemöller
Partner
Frankfurt am Main
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Dr Michael Weiß
Partner
Frankfurt am Main
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Dr Jan-Hendrik Bode
Counsel
Frankfurt am Main
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