2023 global M&A transactions: cautious optimism amid challenging outlook

Our trends to monitor, compiled from data modelling by our research team and insights from global partners, include a strong year ahead for energy and infrastructure; hotspots of activity in the Middle East and Japan; renewed interest in digital assets; and further efforts by private equity funds to create value through complexity.

Key highlights:  

• USD3.7tn total financial sponsor dry powder at the end of November 2022, a new high. With syndicated leveraged debt hard to access, 2023 will see sponsors create value through more complex transactions such as carveouts or aggressively going after two or more complementary assets at the same time

• +28% rise in Japanese M&A in H2 2022, one of the few markets globally to see an uptick. We expect robust activity in 2023 as Japanese corporates embrace sales and Japan’s central bank battles to control inflation

• Crypto assets in North America are one-to-watch – crypto-related M&A volumes remained strong in 2022 and despite the FTX collapse we expect trading platforms to be among the most active buyers in coming months. We’re also seeing strong interest from consumer businesses looking to copy the success of brands such as Nike

• USD192.4bn – total energy and power M&A in H2 to the end of November, making it the biggest sector by value. We expect a strong year in 2023 amid the ongoing energy crisis and drive to decarbonise production

• The success of energy producers has a regional dimension, too, with the Middle East one of the most buoyant markets for both M&A and IPO activity in 2022. In the period to mid-November, private equity funds invested more than USD14bn in a record 64 buyouts in the region. We expect this trend to continue as, for example, gigaprojects in Saudi Arabia create significant opportunities for overseas investors

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